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Open Source Projects double every 14 months!

Based on the models developed for the "Exponential Growth of Open Source" study we calculated the time required to double the number of projects and the total open source code. It took approximately 13.89 months to double the total number of open source projects from 1995-2006. Please refer the "The Total Growth of Open Source" paper for the details of the approach and analysis. On the same lines, it took around 12.49 months to double the total open source lines of code for the projects considered. That means every year (plus a month or so) both the total number of projects and lines of code double! The interesting question is: Can Open Source sustain this exponential growth?

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    Here are some links which reference this article:
    http://developers.slashdot.org/developers/08/03/14/0419252.shtml
    http://www.computerworlduk.com/community/blogs/index.cfm?blogid=14&entryid=596
    http://www.cnet.com/8301-13505_1-9919051-16.html
    http://tinosc.blogspot.com/2008/03/dirk-riehle-total-growth-of-open-source.html
    http://www.geekzone.co.nz/foobar/4904
    http://bduck1.blogspot.com/2008/03/total-growth-of-open-source-software.html
    http://ostatic.com/158620-blog/why-open-source-is-growing-at-an-amazing-pace-because-it-can
    http://www.newstin.co.uk/sim/uk/47517763/en-010-001204615
    http://forums.raiden.net/viewtopic.php?t=14890
    http://digg.com/linux_unix/Open_Source_Projects_double_every_14_months?t=14485337
    http://lawandlifesiliconvalley.blogspot.com/2008/03/open-source-growing-at-exponential-rate.html
    http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/?p=2127

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  3. sorry amit by mistake i posted u as Ashish..............

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  4. The question isn't how many open source projects *start*, but how many finish. For ever project that finishes, there are dozens, maybe hundreds that never get past the beginning stages. i feel that the number of project starts isn't at all important.

    How many new open source projects ever release "1.0" quality code? That seems far more useful than starts.

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